Political writer David Limbaugh makes a less than convincing case in his current column that what is going on in this 2008 Republican primary season is a fundamental bid by a Phoenix-like “neo-Rockefeller” wing of the GOP to wrest control of the party, than (forgive the expression) just a proverbial pissing match between Reaganites and McCainiacs over their respective definitions of what constitutes true conservatism.
He writes:
… what we are witnessing is a resurrection of the historical GOP turf war between the Reagan conservatives and the disgruntled Rockefeller moderates. This neo-Rockefeller branch of the GOP sees this moment — McCain’s inevitable nomination, albeit by default, and the politically confused state of evangelicals under the tutelage of Mike Huckabee — as an opportunity finally to retake the GOP from the Reagan conservatives. Think of it as GOP Rearrangement Syndrome. And their strong support of the war has given them a narrative around which to forge their new coalition — as if they have a monopoly on hawkishness.
They want to remake the party in their image. They are the neoconservatives, the national-greatness types who profess to believe in conservative ideals but have no problem achieving them through liberal ends — i.e., more government. They apparently believe that history has passed traditional conservatism by, that big government is here to stay — and not to be resisted — and that Reagan conservatives should make the best of it and try to direct government toward conservative causes.
Why am I not buying into his analysis? Because the neo-Rockefeller wing of the party rebounded in the 2000 election season with George W. Bush’s victory, albeit contested, over Al Gore. McCain’s not leading any transitional phase away from Reagan conservatism. George Bush already did. George Bush’s two-term presidency cleared the way for John McCain’s presumptive nomination, precisely because they’re birds-of-a-feather and moderates are and have been in entrenched control of the party.
Fact is, McCain’s presidency, should he prevail over Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, will in most respects — particularly vis-a-vis the war in Iraq and a patent indifference to porous borders and illegal immigration — likely walk in the footprints of Bush ’43’s. Indeed, the “paradigm shift” that Limbaugh speaks of has been largely effected over the past seven years. To be sure, it’s not just now in its nascent phase.
Frankly, I find Jonah Goldberg’s Op-Ed piece in USAToday more compelling. Reagan conservatives are not apoplectic over the prospect of a McCain-led transformation of the Republican Party away from Reagan’s principles of small government, fiscal constraint, and the federalism of the Founding. Rather, they’re still suffering from irreversible buyer’s remorse and an acute feeling of disenfranchisement vis-a-vis Bush, who campaigned in 2000 and 2004 as a conservative, but in many regards was anything but, both realities of which have been exacerbated by John McCain’s rise to presumptive nominee status, not recently jump-started.
Writes Goldberg (with my emphasis added):
There are lots of reasons, some good, some bad, for conservatives’ angry dyspepsia toward McCain. I have bouts of it myself. From campaign-finance reform, to his proposed amnesty for illegal immigrants to his general tendency to burnish his own maverick street rep by triangulating off conservatives, McCain just seems to relish breaking ranks too much.
But that raises an interesting and remarkably undiscussed question for McCain’s detractors: Who are you really mad at?
He continues:
Most of the criticisms aimed at McCain can be directed at President Bush himself. Campaign-finance reform is a great example. Most conservatives think McCain’s effort to regulate political speech is an unconstitutional abomination. But in fairness to McCain, he doesn’t think that. You know who does? George W. Bush. The president signed the McCain-Feingold bill though he admitted that he thought it was unconstitutional. But as a “uniter not a divider,” Bush felt it wasn’t his place to veto an unconstitutional law — his oath of office notwithstanding — that was very popular, particularly with independents, centrist Democrats and the New York Times crowd.
Amnesty for illegal immigrants? To be sure, McCain was a big player last year in pushing legislation many on the right detest. But the biggest player of all was, again, Bush. Whatever your disagreements with McCain on immigration might be, it’s pretty much impossible not to have the same disagreements with the president who campaigned in 2000 insisting that “family values don’t end at the Rio Grande.” Indeed, before the 9/11 attacks, Bush wanted to make Mexico, not Great Britain, our No. 1. ally.
You can go on like this for quite a while. If you point to McCain’s very conservative record on judges, his detractors will dismiss it, saying they don’t trust his instincts. Didn’t McCain say something about Justice Samuel Alito being too conservative? they ask. Well, didn’t Bush’s instincts guide him to naming White House insider Harriet Miers before conservatives revolted and forced him to choose again? McCain opponents note that while the senator talks a big game about cutting pork from the budget, he’s still a big regulator and friend of activist government. This is fair, to some extent, but they forget that it was President Bush who pushed through the biggest expansion of the welfare state since the Great Society with his prescription drug benefit — a plan McCain opposed and promises to scale back.
And here’s the money quote:
According to many pundits, McCain won the Republican Party’s “anti-Bush” wing, made up of moderates and independents. But this is largely a media-driven narrative imposed on a somewhat different reality. There is, in fact, a much broader anti-Bush sentiment in the party. The “right wing” of the GOP is suffering from a deep buyer’s remorse of its own.
I read a piece several days back in which the writer couldn’t understand why there appears so much animosity from the ranks of conservatives towards John McCain, while President Bush seems to get a pass. My thought then, after reading the column, is the same as it is today: Bush isn’t getting a pass; rather, conservatives gripped by the dilemma that faced them in 2000 and again in 2004 in voting for the lesser of two evils (Gore and Kerry, respectively), are wholly preoccupied with the comparably vexing prospect come November of choosing a Republican conservative apostate over left-of-Left Obama or left-winger (masquerading as a centrist) Hillary Clinton. This penchant of the Republican Party for producing lesser of two evils’ choices is getting old and is, for some of us anyway, a compromised path we may no longer be willing to tread. This may be the year for a line to be drawn in the sand.
As Jonah Goldberg concludes (again, with my emphasis added):
Conservatives supported Bush in 2000 for numerous reasons, including the fact that he seemed the best candidate to win back the White House. But one reason for his success in winning conservative support was that he just seemed like “one of us.” He carried himself like a conservative. He spoke like a conservative. He was an evangelical Christian and pro-life Texan, who reassured much of the base by telegraphing that he was on the right side of the culture wars. As political positioning, this was brilliant stuff. Aesthetically, he played to the hearts of the right while politically he promised to be something of a centrist, almost Clintonian, president without the seedy soft-core porn baggage.
In terms of body language, the contrast with McCain couldn’t be more stark. Bush has always been the sort of politician who relishes being loathed by The New York Times. McCain simply loves being loved by the Times and the national media generally. It’s his base.
But substantively, the differences between McCainism and Bushism are very narrow …
I couldn’t agree more and that’s why many Republican conservatives are, at best, demoralized and, at worst, livid.
Besides, if it weren’t the case that the neo-Rockefeller “moderates” are already in control of the GOP, then why does Huckabee’s pseudo-conservative campaign persist, why did Romney’s turn-on-a-dime conversion have the traction that it did, and why were the candidacy’s of Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, and Fred Thompson so poorly received?
As Charles Krauthammer has correctly observed:
… there’s an even more profound reason why no Reagan showed up this election cycle and why the apostate sheriff is going to win the nomination. The reason is George W. Bush. He redefined conservatism with a “compassionate” variant that is a distinct departure from classic Reaganism.
Bush muddied the ideological waters of conservatism. It was Bush who teamed with Teddy Kennedy to pass No Child Left Behind, a federal venture into education that would have been anathema to (the early) Reagan. It was Bush who signed the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform. It was Bush who strongly supported the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill. It was Bush who on his own created a vast new entitlement program, the Medicare drug benefit. And it was Bush who conducted a foreign policy so expansive and, at times, redemptive as to send paleoconservatives like Pat Buchanan and traditional conservatives like George Will into apoplexy and despair (respectively).
Who in the end prepared the ground for the McCain ascendancy? Not Feingold. Not Kennedy. Not even Giuliani. It was George W. Bush. Bush begat McCain.
Follow-Up: Newt Gingrich, I trust, wouldn’t characterize his clarion call to conservatives this past Sunday at CPAC as indicative of the “Rearrangment Syndrome” that David Limbaugh avers is underway, but rather a strategic reassessment of why the wheels have come off the track and the degree to which the Republican Party has been culpable in the derailing of the Conservative Movement. Excerpts from his speech:
… I believe that this is a time for the conservative movement to issue a declaration of independence…
First of all, I think we need to get independent from a Washington fixation. There are 513,000 elected officials in the United States and the conservative movement should believe in a decentralized United States, where every elected official has real responsibility, and we should be developing a conservative action plan, at every level of this country, and not simply focused over and over again on arguments about the White House …
I also think that we need to declare our independence from trying to protect and defend failed bureaucracies that magically become ours as soon as we are in charge of them. We appoint solid conservatives to a department and within three weeks they are defending and protecting the very department that they would have been attacking before they got appointed.
Gingrich continues:
In a fundamental way, the conservative movement has to declare itself independent from the Republican Party.
All heady stuff until he, too, caves and declares that conservative Republicans should vote for John McCain come November. Turns out Gingrich is more concerned about being “competitive” and “adapting,” than about being principled and winning those resistant to conservatism over to our side based upon the merits of a political philosophy that guided the Founders. Guess it’s just as well he didn’t enter the fray.
Follow-Up II: Jeffrey Lord, writing for The American Spectator, makes sense here:
If Reagan was a maverick — and I personally believe he was about conservative principle, not about being a maverick — he was a conservative maverick. He approached the 1976 campaign against the incumbent President Ford by running where he in fact was — to Ford’s right. McCain spent both the 2000 primary season against then-Governor Bush and notable parts of his Senate career championing causes not of the right but of the left.
This is why some — but by no means all — of the people I spoke with at CPAC have such hostility to McCain. Had he spent his time in the Senate taking the same conservative philosophical approach to immigration, the First Amendment, the Bush tax cut and global warming as he did to earmarks and the military surge in Iraq he would be receiving hosannas from conservatives. He chose to do otherwise, and thus the problem.
Follow-Up III: Jim Geraghty at NRO’s The Campaign Spot points to this factoid from a recent Gallup Poll:
The most ominous number in the poll for McCain comes on the question, “Would you be satisfied if John McCain ended up the winner in the Republican race, or would you have preferred to see one of the other Republican presidential candidates win?” Right now it’s 51 percent satisfied, 45 percent “would have preferred another.”
I’m damn sure part of that 45%! And I keep wondering when John McCain is going to show us conservatives credible assurances that he’ll here hear us out and act on our principles and beliefs, rather than those of Ted Kennedy and the liberal cabal in Congress he’s grown so cozy with in recent years.
By the way, we’ve been hammered with repeated criticism of our principled (rather than pragmatic) stand against McCain’s candidacy, as well as entreated — indeed, intellectually muscled — by scores of Washington elites arrogantly pointing to the growing chorus of endorsements for the Arizona Senator; but, I ask, who in the MSM and Republican circles is writing about that 45%? That’s a pretty significant number and our viewpoints deserve some attention.
The first “comment” on this post from Gawains Ghost is, I suspect, indicative of the roiling agitation out there among a good portion of WE THE PEOPLE. We’re kindred spirits!
Follow-Up IV (02/13/08): Jonathan Adler, writing for NRO’s The Corner, has a question with regard to Huckabee’s candidacy:
I understand why conservatives have misgivings about McCain — I share many of them — but what I do not understand is how some find Huckabee to be a more acceptable “conservative” candidate. McCain has his share of heresies, to be sure, but they pale in comparison to those of the Huckster — and Huckabee’s foreign policy experience is scarcely greater than Barack Obama’s.
For the record, Jonathan, I’ve questioned Mike Huckabee’s conservative credentials in this blog since the onset. I suspect that many votes cast for Huckabee since the “suspension”of Mitt Romney’s candidacy have been protest votes against McCain.
Follow-Up V (02/13/08): Rene Guerra, in an Op-Ed piece published by The New Media Journal, makes the same argument I have made in this post:
As for the Republican Party, it started taking a noticeable tack to the Left immediately after Reagan left the White House; “A thousand points of light” illuminated the way, some say. Others would argue that the Republican drift to the Left actually started during the Nixon Era.
Regardless of when the Republican Party started drifting to the Left, the fact that not a single heavyweight, across-the-board conservative sought the nomination for 2008 indicated, not only that the Republican Party is increasingly abandoning conservatism, but also that it is moving to the Left faster than what anyone could have thought. That the moderate John McCain has practically won – fair and square, no doubt – the nomination, only confirms it.


and unprotected southern land border. Yet every day, unknown numbers of human and drug smugglers, criminals and potential terrorists continue to illegally enter the United States through our border with Mexico. The exposure of our southern border demands that we take immediate action to implement the most effective enforcement mechanisms available. And while technology and manpower are an important part of this effort, the best and most effective method of preventing illegal foot and vehicle traffic from entering the United States is border security fencing …